Policy decisions involving the danger of serious harms require us to deliberate as carefully as is feasible. Often, policy decisions must be informed by models and simulations. In SOFTWARE ENGINEERING STANDARDS FOR EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS John Symons and I argue that to achieve confidence in pandemic policy-making in particular, the epidemiological software we use to inform our policies should be funded, specified, developed, and managed with the same formality and rigor that aircraft-flight-control software systems are. We describe (at a high level) a widely used software engineering standard capable of promoting that rigor. Within that framework, we then assess the most influential modeling and simulation efforts during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We urge modelers and their funding sources to adopt that standard for the development of these critically important software systems. High software engineering standards should be mandated by funding agencies and norms from high-risk engineering contexts should be adopted in scientific contexts with direct and significant public policy implications.
The file at the link above was last updated 17 October 2020/0847 US Central Time.
Will President Trump’s “rally” at Mt. Rushmore on 3 July 2020 result in the deaths of thousands from COVID-19 infections? It depends on the scenario. Click here for a politically neutral answer.
Are hand sanitizers safe and effective? Some are, and some aren’t. Click here for some details.
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Can masking make a difference in the number of people who die from COVID-19? Yes, and earlier would have been much better. Click here for some details.
The hepatitis C, measles, polio, flu, and tetanus vaccines took about 10 years of research and clinical trials. So how can anyone trust the COVID-19 vaccines, which were muscled through in less than a year? Click here for an answer.
How probable is it that 75% of the US population could be vaccinated for COVID-19 by 1 July 2021? The short answer: less than 0.5. Click here for details.
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Does the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine cause blood clots? Click here for a high-level review of the evidence.
What is the difference between confirmed, versus estimated excess, deaths due to COVID-19? Click here for details.
Should the G7 subsidize COVID-19 vaccination in countries that do not have the resources to vaccinate themselves? Click here for details.
Do the mRNA vaccines change your DNA? No. For details, click here.
This page was last updated on 25 June 2021/0800 US Central Time.